Declining suitable areas of the threatened Philippine native medicinal tree Kamagong ( Diospyros blancoi A. DC.: Ebenaceae) in response to changing climates

Abstract

Climate change has made medicinal plants more vulnerable to habitat changes, affecting both their medicinal properties and accessibility and increasing their risk of extinction. It is thus necessary to understand how current and future climate conditions may affect the suitable habitats of threatened medicinal plants and how they may respond to climate change for long-term conservation planning. To contribute to this, our study aimed to predict suitable habitats for the native and vulnerable medicinal tree species, Diospyros blancoi A. DC., locally known as kamagong, in the Philippines. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to project the current and future habitat suitability of the species based on its occurrence records and spatially associated bioclimatic data. Changes in the habitat suitability of the species were predicted for 2071-2100 under one future climate scenario, SSP5–8.5. The resulting models revealed higher suitability on mountains along the fringes of major islands of the Philippines. Climatic factors that promote the habitat suitability of D. blancoi include moderate mean annual air temperature, low to moderate isothermality, low to moderate mean diurnal temperature range, and moderate to high precipitation. Future climatic projection showed higher losses in low-altitude areas and fewer gains in high-altitude areas, indicating an upward distribution shift in the future. This may consequently reduce its accessibility and availability to human populations relying on it for treatment, especially in low-lying rural areas.