Out of the Barracks and into Politics: the possibility of a military regime in 21st century Philippines

Abstract

Military regimes generally occur in countries experiencing social unrest, economic slowdown and political crisis. To determine the possible rise of a military regime in the Philippines, this paper combines the theories of Claude Welch and Arthur Smith, and of Samuel Finer which are centered on determining the predictability and rise of such regimes as based on specific conditions. It also uses the Behavioral and Neo-Institutional approach so as to explain the opinion of different political actors towards the idea of a Philippine military regime. Through interviews, online survey, and secondary data gathering, the researcher found out that although the country is now experiencing the environmental conditions conducive to a military regime, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Filipino population remain to oppose the prospect of a Philippine military regime. Such public opinion is a strong reflection of how Filipinos in general prefer democracy over any other forms of government.