Abstract:
Chromolaena odorata (L.) R.M.King & H.Rob., a naturalized but extremely invasive shrub
locally known as hagonoy, poses problems due to its allelopathic properties, which may
reduce plant diversity, hinder livestock forage growth, and pose fire hazards. Despite its
negative impacts, research on its growth, proliferation, and habitat preference in the
Philippines, especially amid climate change, remains limited. In this study, current and
future habitat suitability of C. odorata was determined through species distribution
modeling. Occurrence data and environmental data, bioclimatic and remote sensing, were
all obtained from well-established biogeographic databases. From these, three habitat
suitability models were constructed using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), one under present
climatic condition, another under future best-case climatic scenario, and another under
future worst-case climatic scenario, all with remote sensing data. Area under the curve
(AUC) score indicates that all models are acceptable. All current and future projections
show that C. odorata prefers habitats with lower annual precipitation, less distinct
temperature seasonality, and lower Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
These are areas along the eastern arc of the Philippines, with concentration along the
southeastern Luzon, eastern coast of Visayas, and inland southwestern Mindanao. It is
recommended to add more environmental data for more robust modeling, including NDVI
that are projected into the future, for more accurate predictions.
