Forecasting The Quarterly Production Of Rice And Corn In Davao del Sur: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Time Series Analysis is a valuable tool in making informed decisions. The Philippines would greatly benefit in using this for crop production, especially rice and corn, since the country is a large producer and consumer said products. The study aims to develop a system that predicts rice and corn production using datasets from Davao del Sur using SARIMA, Bayesian SARIMA, Holt-Winters, and LSTM. The obtained models provide, at the lowest, an 8.42% MAPE for rice and 19.87% MAPE for corn. In addition, the system developed allows the user to develop their own models.