Macrohabitat Suitability Assessment of the Critically Endangered Medinilla Magnifica (Melastomataceae) in the Philippines under Present and Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Considered one of the centers of diversity of Melastomataceae in the world, the Philippines faces a biodiversity crisis in the face of climate change. Consequently, many species of the family in the country are currently at risk of extinction like Medinilla magnifica Lindl., a common ornamental plant locally and internationally. While it is heavily cultivated in gardens worldwide, wild populations are threatened by habitat degradation and overcollection. Unfortunately, conservation efforts are proving to be difficult due to incongruent distribution data for the species. Through maximum entropy modeling, this study aimed to predict suitable habitats for M. magnifica in the Philippines under current, as well as intermediate and worst future climate scenarios, represented by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Subsequently, the level of protection potentially received by M. magnifica was assessed by determining the extent of the suitable habitats covered by protected areas in the Philippines. Habitat suitability models showed that the range of suitable habitat areas for the species goes beyond the localities with known occurrences across the archipelago. However, only around one-fifth of these areas are within the boundaries of protected areas in the country. Potential losses in suitable areas leading to habitat fragmentation across the country are expected under both future climate scenarios by the mid-21st century. The findings of this study can help streamline conservation efforts for threatened native and endemic flora in the country aside from M. magnifica amidst the threat of climate change.