Thucydidean Entrapment: The Role of Middle Powers in US-China Power Transition – The Case of the Philippines

Abstract

The competition between the United States of America and China has been characterized as a form of “power transition.” The theory of power transition became the prevalent framework in international relations in scrutinizing the relations between a ruling power and the rising power and how such relation will end up. While other scholars argue that it may lead into a “Thucydides’ Trap”, seminal literature on the topic fails to take into account the relevance of allied states in shaping the dynamics of this power transition phase. This study seeks to address this theoretical gap by analyzing how middle-power states like the Philippines can contribute to the determination of conclusion of this power transition phase, particularly being an ally of one of the two competing states, the United States. The study characterizes the role of middle power allies in the power transition phase through the theoretical model of “Thucydidean Entrapment.” This model proposes that through an alliance with a superpower in power transition, middle power states can escalate tensions as the alliance emboldens them, entrapping a great power ally into a war it does not wish to participate in. The study is contextualized by the situation of the Philippines and its alliance with the United States and the continued rift with China over the disputes in the South China Sea. Through a qualitative analysis of insights from different sectors, the study seeks to determine the disposition and the possible course of actions of middle powers involved with states in the power transition phase.