Abstract:
Considered one of the centers of diversity of Melastomataceae in the world, the Philippines
faces a biodiversity crisis in the face of climate change. Consequently, many species of the family
in the country are currently at risk of extinction like Medinilla magnifica Lindl., a common
ornamental plant locally and internationally. While it is heavily cultivated in gardens worldwide,
wild populations are threatened by habitat degradation and overcollection. Unfortunately,
conservation efforts are proving to be difficult due to incongruent distribution data for the species.
Through maximum entropy modeling, this study aimed to predict suitable habitats for M.
magnifica in the Philippines under current, as well as intermediate and worst future climate
scenarios, represented by RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Subsequently, the level of protection
potentially received by M. magnifica was assessed by determining the extent of the suitable
habitats covered by protected areas in the Philippines. Habitat suitability models showed that the
range of suitable habitat areas for the species goes beyond the localities with known occurrences
across the archipelago. However, only around one-fifth of these areas are within the boundaries of
protected areas in the country. Potential losses in suitable areas leading to habitat fragmentation
across the country are expected under both future climate scenarios by the mid-21st century. The
findings of this study can help streamline conservation efforts for threatened native and endemic
flora in the country aside from M. magnifica amidst the threat of climate change.
